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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tech Free Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Castawakeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tech Free Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TraVins · 6 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Varizh · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
100%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
40%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
db- · 4 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TraVins · 4 games
25%
Silencer
Silencer
Varizh · 4 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Varizh · 3 games
67%

Castawake

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Bob · 2 games
100%
Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 1 game
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 1 game
100%
Lina
Lina
Bob · 1 game
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Fbz · 1 game
0%
Razor
Razor
Fbz · 1 game
0%
Riki
Riki
DJ · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 585 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
486 picks · 438 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
468 picks · 235 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
368 picks · 750 bans
48%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
336 picks · 768 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
335 picks · 512 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
320 picks · 291 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Tech Free Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Castawake
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:9
Tech Free Gaming 49%Castawake 51%
The model gave 51% on Castawake — the game was taken by Tech Free Gaming in 30:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTraVins
45% · 229 games50% · 301 game
BeastmasterFbz
Beastmaster
Death Prophet
Death Prophetdb-
53% · 29 games53% · 189 games
PuckBob
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMamangDaya
50% · 223 games46% · 189 games
Dark WillowDJ
Dark Willow
Slark
Slarkdalul
54% · 48 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenVarizh
51% · 150 games
Game 2prediction missed6:31
Tech Free Gaming 51%Castawake 49%
The model gave 51% on Tech Free Gaming — the game was taken by Castawake in 28:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTraVins
54% · 277 games44% · 258 games
TerrorbladeFbz
Terrorblade
Dark Seer
Dark Seerdb-
57% · 121 game43% · 302 games
BatriderBob
Batrider
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMamangDaya
49% · 276 games49% · 281 game
TuskDJ
Tusk
Riki
Rikidalul
59% · 44 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanVarizh
55% · 123 games
Game 3prediction missed33:13
Tech Free Gaming 48%Castawake 52%
The model gave 52% on Castawake — the game was taken by Tech Free Gaming in 35:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorTraVins
60% · 73 games56% · 309 games
BristlebackFbz
Bristleback
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMamangDaya
48% · 320 games46% · 468 games
TinyBob
Tiny
Doom
Doomdb-
46% · 251 game46% · 348 games
TuskDJ
Tusk
Warlock
WarlockVarizh
51% · 170 games
Batrider
Batriderdalul
48% · 311 games
Model check result
Model favoriteCastawake · 53%
Series resultTech Free Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3