The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Edgeloss 1:3series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Heroicwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Edge
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 14 games
Muerta
Michael · 10 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Vitaly · 8 games
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Yadomi · 7 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Vitaly · 7 games
Pangoliersignature
PiPi · 7 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Michael · 7 games
Heroic
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 22 games
Magnussignature
Wisper · 21 game
Muerta
Scofield · 19 games
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 18 games
Jakiro
KJ · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 16 games
Bristlebacksignature
Wisper · 15 games
Earthshakersignature
4nalog · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
513 picks · 582 bans
Jakiro
486 picks · 438 bans
Ringmaster
467 picks · 235 bans
Terrorblade
366 picks · 741 bans
Ancient Apparition
333 picks · 766 bans
Storm Spirit
333 picks · 510 bans
Tusk
317 picks · 286 bans
Windranger
306 picks · 93 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 44%
Hero pool strength59% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total72% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:23
Edge 37%Heroic 63%
The model gave 63% on Heroic — the game was taken by Edge in 46:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterpayk
SvenYuma
PhoenixPiPi
Monkey King4nalog
Dark SeerVitaly
MagnusWisper
TuskYadomi
MuertaScofield
RikiMichael
OracleKJ
Game 2prediction correct37:29
Edge 38%Heroic 62%
The model gave 62% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:00:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenpayk
Dark SeerWisper
PuckPiPi
LinaYuma
Death ProphetVitaly
Void Spirit4nalog
RingmasterYadomi
Naga SirenKJ
TinyMichael
ClockwerkScofield
Game 3prediction correct23:24
Edge 36%Heroic 64%
The model gave 64% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:00:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistpayk
LinaYuma
WarlockYadomi
EnigmaWisper
Dark SeerVitaly
Slardar4nalog
PangolierPiPi
ClockwerkScofield
TinyMichael
Elder TitanKJ
Game 4prediction correct29:30
Edge 37%Heroic 63%
The model gave 63% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 44:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doompayk
AbaddonYuma
Death ProphetVitaly
Puck4nalog
PangolierPiPi
MagnusWisper
TuskMichael
TinyScofield
SilencerYadomi
Ancient ApparitionKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 72%
Series resultHeroic 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4