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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Secretloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 21 game
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Daxak · 15 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 14 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
69%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Daxak · 13 games
62%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Noticed · 11 games
55%

Team Secret

Tiny
Tinysignature
Supream^ · 14 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 13 games
77%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 12 games
92%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 12 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 10 games
70%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Thiolicor · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
512 picks · 584 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
488 picks · 439 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
467 picks · 235 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
366 picks · 741 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
333 picks · 510 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
330 picks · 764 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
320 picks · 282 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
305 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 72%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:7
Virtus.pro 48%Team Secret 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 39:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaV-Tune
46% · 109 games45% · 107 games
KunkkaKiritych
Kunkka
Death Prophet
Death ProphetLorenof
53% · 35 games46% · 289 games
Pangolierre1bl
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDaxak
53% · 213 games53% · 84 games
BrewmasterCloud
Brewmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAntares
52% · 169 games56% · 57 games
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
Keeper of the Light
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRein
52% · 89 games48% · 78 games
Ancient ApparitionPuppey
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct8:26
Virtus.pro 45%Team Secret 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 47:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
47% · 356 games56% · 75 games
SvenKiritych
Sven
Abaddon
AbaddonV-Tune
48% · 90 games58% · 203 games
Monkey Kingre1bl
Monkey King
Omniknight
OmniknightDaxak
47% · 50 games43% · 282 games
PangolierCloud
Pangolier
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetRein
53% · 156 games56% · 64 games
ChenPuppey
Chen
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAntares
45% · 113 games49% · 141 game
Dark WillowThiolicor
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed24:4
Virtus.pro 45%Team Secret 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperLorenof
46% · 108 games49% · 79 games
Linare1bl
Lina
Wraith King
Wraith KingV-Tune
49% · 22 games59% · 69 games
Dark SeerCloud
Dark Seer
Axe
AxeDaxak
47% · 33 games59% · 46 games
SvenKiritych
Sven
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAntares
43% · 153 games52% · 71 game
Nature's ProphetPuppey
Nature's Prophet
Death Prophet
Death ProphetRein
47% · 31 game54% · 82 games
MagnusThiolicor
Magnus
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 56%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3