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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ivoryloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Akashi · 13 games
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 11 games
36%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
90%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Tino- · 9 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Shanks · 8 games
63%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Tino- · 7 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
33%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Shanks · 6 games
67%

Ivory

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
20%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dric~ · 4 games
25%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Rupido · 4 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 4 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 3 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Rupido · 3 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Rupido · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 584 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
490 picks · 438 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
467 picks · 233 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
361 picks · 740 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
332 picks · 509 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
329 picks · 761 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
319 picks · 277 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
303 picks · 93 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Execration
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total74% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:10
Execration 62%Ivory 38%
The model gave 62% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 27:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladePalos
49% · 160 games44% · 181 game
Dragon KnightKen
Dragon Knight
Kunkka
KunkkaTino-
51% · 85 games52% · 97 games
Primal BeastRupido
Primal Beast
Rubick
RubickShanks
50% · 120 games55% · 98 games
Shadow ShamanDric~
Shadow Shaman
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorcml
50% · 11 games
Game 2prediction missed14:26
Execration 67%Ivory 33%
The model gave 67% on Execration — the game was taken by Ivory in 30:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerPalos
53% · 37 games49% · 124 games
Ember SpiritKen
Ember Spirit
Doom
DoomTino-
50% · 217 games47% · 199 games
TinyRupido
Tiny
Naga Siren
Naga Sirencml
56% · 103 games43% · 179 games
TuskDric~
Tusk
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanShanks
55% · 145 games
Game 3prediction correct45:16
Execration 64%Ivory 36%
The model gave 64% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 31:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTino-
57% · 97 games48% · 76 games
Queen of PainKen
Queen of Pain
Kunkka
KunkkaPalos
50% · 83 games43% · 224 games
PangolierRupido
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderShanks
46% · 181 game50% · 90 games
Shadow ShamanDric~
Shadow Shaman
Bane
Banecml
63% · 29 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 74%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3