?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Cyber Goosewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 19 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 19 games
68%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 18 games
72%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 17 games
71%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 15 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 13 games
69%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 11 games
45%

Cyber Goose

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
prblms · 7 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 5 games
80%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 4 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Solo · 4 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Noticed · 3 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 3 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 583 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
491 picks · 441 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
467 picks · 233 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
361 picks · 737 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
332 picks · 511 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
328 picks · 758 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
320 picks · 277 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
303 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 80%
Hero pool strength54% Cyber Goose
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:11
Natus Vincere 58%Cyber Goose 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaYuragi
47% · 121 game44% · 170 games
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckCopy
51% · 272 games53% · 108 games
EnigmaNoticed
Enigma
Axe
AxeBOOM
44% · 19 games45% · 94 games
KunkkaChira JUNIOR
Kunkka
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKaori
59% · 130 games51% · 142 games
JakiroSolo
Jakiro
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAri
54% · 223 games48% · 251 game
Tuskprblms
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed11:43
Natus Vincere 59%Cyber Goose 41%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Cyber Goose in 34:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYuragi
44% · 206 games49% · 62 games
Drow RangerTA2000
Drow Ranger
Pangolier
PangolierCopy
41% · 478 games56% · 324 games
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
Storm Spirit
Magnus
MagnusBOOM
57% · 237 games56% · 334 games
BristlebackNoticed
Bristleback
Muerta
MuertaAri
49% · 355 games54% · 250 games
Shadow DemonSolo
Shadow Demon
Undying
UndyingKaori
47% · 59 games48% · 365 games
Tuskprblms
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed20:34
Natus Vincere 57%Cyber Goose 43%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Cyber Goose in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYuragi
44% · 61 game50% · 192 games
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCopy
49% · 389 games61% · 178 games
BristlebackNoticed
Bristleback
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
50% · 183 games50% · 318 games
TinyChira JUNIOR
Tiny
Marci
MarciAri
39% · 142 games44% · 158 games
Windrangerprblms
Windranger
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKaori
53% · 196 games59% · 125 games
Shadow DemonSolo
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 67%
Series resultCyber Goose 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3