Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ssifr00loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 27 games
Phoenix
GH · 26 games
Tusk
OmaR · 25 games
Earthshaker
SumaiL · 21 game
Magnussignature
No!ob · 21 game
Tinysignature
OmaR · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 19 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 19 games
sifr00
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 583 bans
Jakiro
491 picks · 441 bans
Ringmaster
467 picks · 233 bans
Terrorblade
361 picks · 737 bans
Storm Spirit
332 picks · 511 bans
Ancient Apparition
328 picks · 758 bans
Tusk
320 picks · 277 bans
Windranger
303 picks · 93 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:22
Nigma Galaxy 94%sifr00 6%
The model gave 94% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:29.
Game 2prediction correct25:8
Nigma Galaxy 94%sifr00 6%
The model gave 94% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 15:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 94%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2