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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Cyber Goosewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 24 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 21 game
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 19 games
37%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 19 games
21%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
not me · 16 games
56%

Cyber Goose

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 4 games
75%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
prblms · 4 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Noticed · 3 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Solo · 3 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 3 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
100%
Windranger
Windranger
prblms · 3 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Noticed · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
500 picks · 576 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
490 picks · 444 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
457 picks · 232 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
359 picks · 721 bans
47%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
323 picks · 739 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
323 picks · 505 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
307 picks · 266 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
300 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 77%
Hero pool strength63% Cyber Goose
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Cyber Goose
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:32
One Move 45%Cyber Goose 55%
The model gave 55% on Cyber Goose — the game was taken by Cyber Goose in 42:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightEyesight
53% · 216 games40% · 105 games
AbaddonTA2000
Abaddon
Lina
LinaDifference
50% · 127 games45% · 49 games
Death ProphetNoticed
Death Prophet
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
50% · 162 games48% · 411 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark WillowGilgir
51% · 209 games57% · 235 games
Shadow DemonSolo
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroBb3px
50% · 240 games53% · 154 games
Shadow Shamanprblms
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct19:15
One Move 44%Cyber Goose 56%
The model gave 56% on Cyber Goose — the game was taken by Cyber Goose in 52:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinEyesight
46% · 270 games55% · 70 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Death Prophet
Death ProphetCorrupted
49% · 35 games52% · 167 games
BeastmasterNoticed
Beastmaster
Void Spirit
Void SpiritDifference
48% · 87 games50% · 182 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Earthshaker
EarthshakerGilgir
49% · 181 game53% · 149 games
JakiroSolo
Jakiro
Disruptor
DisruptorBb3px
43% · 67 games58% · 72 games
Shadow Shamanprblms
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteCyber Goose · 58%
Series resultCyber Goose 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2