BetBoom Streamers Battle 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
GoodWin Teamwin 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Stariy_bog Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GoodWin Team
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Mariachi · 3 games
Marcioften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
Techies
Lesn4ok · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
GoodWin · 2 games
Venomanceroften banned
Leviamur · 2 games
Void Spirit
GoodWin · 2 games
Axe
meLes · 1 game
Bane
GoodWin · 1 game
Stariy_bog Team
Gyrocopteroften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
Stariy bog · 2 games
Marcioften banned
krylat · 2 games
Ogre Magi
Stariy bog · 2 games
Warlock
FlexSlut · 2 games
Axe
krylat · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krylat · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
krylat · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
491 picks · 574 bans
Jakiro
487 picks · 444 bans
Ringmaster
453 picks · 232 bans
Terrorblade
355 picks · 718 bans
Ancient Apparition
321 picks · 733 bans
Storm Spirit
321 picks · 502 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 262 bans
Windranger
298 picks · 93 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% GoodWin Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% GoodWin Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:36
GoodWin Team 55%Stariy_bog Team 45%
The model gave 55% on GoodWin Team — the game was taken by GoodWin Team in 1:06:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BrewmasterChodΣX
PuckStariy bog
Faceless VoidMariachi
Juggernaut4IVAN
Void SpiritGoodWin
Kunkkakrylat
JakiroLeviamur
SnapfireFlexSlut
Skywrath MageLesn4ok
Game 2prediction missed34:39
GoodWin Team 53%Stariy_bog Team 47%
The model gave 53% on GoodWin Team — the game was taken by Stariy_bog Team in 40:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PudgeMariachi
Dragon Knight4IVAN
TimbersawChodΣX
Queen of PainStariy bog
Centaur WarrunnerGoodWin
Magnuskrylat
TechiesLesn4ok
Ancient ApparitionFlexSlut
DisruptorLeviamur
Game 3prediction correct53:30
GoodWin Team 54%Stariy_bog Team 46%
The model gave 54% on GoodWin Team — the game was taken by GoodWin Team in 43:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetMariachi
Wraith King4IVAN
KunkkaChodΣX
WindrangerStariy bog
UndyingGoodWin
Centaur Warrunnerkrylat
Dark WillowLeviamur
Ancient ApparitionFlexSlut
Crystal MaidenLesn4ok
Model check result
Model favoriteGoodWin Team · 57%
Series resultGoodWin Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3