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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 22 games
73%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 17 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Timado · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
73%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 15 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 14 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Hellscream · 14 games
43%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Timado · 13 games
54%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 22 games
36%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 14 games
71%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 14 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 14 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 12 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Bignum · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
491 picks · 574 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
487 picks · 444 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
453 picks · 232 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
355 picks · 718 bans
47%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
321 picks · 733 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
321 picks · 502 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 262 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
298 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total84% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:12
Shopify Rebellion 72%Wildcard Gaming 28%
The model gave 72% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 40:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawDavai
48% · 141 game48% · 163 games
WeaverYamSun
Weaver
Sven
SvenTimado
49% · 119 games49% · 297 games
Storm SpiritRCY
Storm Spirit
Tiny
TinyYopaj
54% · 348 games49% · 128 games
KunkkaFayde
Kunkka
Batrider
BatriderHellscream
49% · 235 games54% · 74 games
TinkerSpeeed
Tinker
Chen
ChenSkem
58% · 77 games45% · 258 games
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct24:9
Shopify Rebellion 68%Wildcard Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 40:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTimado
44% · 157 games57% · 132 games
UrsaYamSun
Ursa
Kunkka
KunkkaYopaj
40% · 71 game48% · 96 games
DawnbreakerFayde
Dawnbreaker
Enigma
EnigmaDavai
61% · 101 game50% · 24 games
Death ProphetRCY
Death Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkem
44% · 106 games57% · 135 games
Shadow ShamanBignum
Shadow Shaman
Rubick
RubickHellscream
52% · 70 games46% · 118 games
WarlockSpeeed
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 84%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2