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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 19 games
63%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
erase · 18 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 17 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 17 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 15 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RESPECT · 13 games
31%
Muerta
Muerta
queezy · 13 games
54%

Natus Vincere

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 19 games
53%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 18 games
72%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 17 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
QBFY · 15 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 13 games
69%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 12 games
83%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
489 picks · 573 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
487 picks · 444 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
453 picks · 232 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
355 picks · 716 bans
47%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
321 picks · 733 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
320 picks · 501 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 262 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
298 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total61% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:33
HULIGANI 42%Natus Vincere 58%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 35:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
Kunkkav1olent-
47% · 104 games50% · 152 games
SvenYuragi
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiriterase
55% · 280 games51% · 394 games
TinyCopy
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
45% · 160 games41% · 23 games
AxeBOOM
Axe
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetRESPECT
54% · 135 games46% · 112 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Rubick
Rubickmrls
45% · 180 games57% · 178 games
Shadow DemonAri
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed37:20
HULIGANI 44%Natus Vincere 56%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendv1olent-
55% · 148 games50% · 256 games
BristlebackYuragi
Bristleback
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
55% · 204 games45% · 464 games
PangolierCopy
Pangolier
Tiny
Tinyerase
51% · 530 games36% · 40 games
AxeBOOM
Axe
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRESPECT
54% · 97 games45% · 329 games
BatriderAri
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark Willowmrls
50% · 259 games58% · 149 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct10:32
HULIGANI 45%Natus Vincere 55%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 44:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterv1olent-
53% · 268 games49% · 230 games
SvenYuragi
Sven
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
57% · 202 games45% · 143 games
SniperCopy
Sniper
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knighterase
51% · 310 games51% · 144 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRESPECT
56% · 113 games44% · 358 games
BatriderKaori
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark Willowmrls
43% · 226 games51% · 244 games
Shadow DemonAri
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 61%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3