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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Niku · 27 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 23 games
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Zayac · 20 games
60%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
80%

Zero Tenacity

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 29 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 27 games
30%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
27%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 26 games
81%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Retsu · 26 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
42%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 24 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
489 picks · 571 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
488 picks · 445 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
452 picks · 232 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
356 picks · 715 bans
47%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
320 picks · 732 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
317 picks · 499 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 264 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
298 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total84% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:4
Natus Vincere Junior 70%Zero Tenacity 30%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 23:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusagotthejuice
48% · 99 games47% · 76 games
RazorNande
Razor
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
55% · 103 games58% · 42 games
UndyingNefrit
Undying
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNiku
46% · 57 games48% · 117 games
KunkkaStojkov
Kunkka
Batrider
BatriderZayac
46% · 175 games49% · 209 games
Dark WillowPablo
Dark Willow
Ringmaster
RingmasterRiddys
53% · 73 games54% · 63 games
OracleLeBronDota
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct27:16
Natus Vincere Junior 71%Zero Tenacity 29%
The model gave 71% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 31:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svengotthejuice
51% · 125 games52% · 47 games
ClinkzNande
Clinkz
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
49% · 354 games52% · 170 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
49% · 281 game47% · 526 games
TinyStojkov
Tiny
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanZayac
51% · 124 games53% · 270 games
MuertaPablo
Muerta
Ringmaster
RingmasterRiddys
49% · 168 games47% · 39 games
UndyingLeBronDota
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 84%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2