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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 27 games
44%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 20 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 17 games
29%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 16 games
69%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Batyuk · 16 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
kreker · 14 games
36%

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 21 game
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SSS · 16 games
56%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Munkushi~ · 15 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Munkushi~ · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
490 picks · 446 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
486 picks · 569 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
452 picks · 232 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
353 picks · 718 bans
47%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
320 picks · 730 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
316 picks · 496 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 263 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
294 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total89% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:56
Passion UA 25%1w Team 75%
The model gave 75% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 55:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyniche
54% · 188 games45% · 43 games
Drow RangerMunkushi~
Drow Ranger
Lina
LinaCrystallize
40% · 45 games49% · 125 games
KunkkaSquad1x
Kunkka
Magnus
MagnusBatyuk
48% · 63 games39% · 41 game
AxeSSS
Axe
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
60% · 89 games48% · 179 games
Windrangerswedenstrong
Windranger
Marci
Marcikreker
50% · 52 games62% · 49 games
Undyingkasane
Undying
Game 2prediction correct8:34
Passion UA 24%1w Team 76%
The model gave 76% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 29:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaCrystallize
49% · 122 games50% · 250 games
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Gyrocopter
Tiny
Tinyniche
50% · 599 games52% · 325 games
BeastmasterSSS
Beastmaster
Underlord
UnderlordBatyuk
50% · 129 games54% · 313 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Marci
Marcikreker
44% · 131 game51% · 247 games
Batriderswedenstrong
Batrider
Windranger
WindrangerQBFY
46% · 191 game56% · 37 games
Undyingkasane
Undying
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 89%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2