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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 44 games
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ekki · 24 games
63%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 23 games
70%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 22 games
41%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 21 game
43%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 21 game
43%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 20 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 20 games
75%

OG

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 16 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 15 games
27%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nine · 13 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 12 games
33%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
23savage · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 11 games
45%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
MikSa` · 11 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
484 picks · 447 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
482 picks · 565 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
451 picks · 232 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
352 picks · 713 bans
47%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
314 picks · 727 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
314 picks · 491 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
302 picks · 256 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
293 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 31%
Hero pool strength57% AVULUS
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total62% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:10
AVULUS 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 32:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSmiling Knight
45% · 74 games54% · 138 games
LinaStormstormer
Lina
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
45% · 130 games50% · 220 games
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyWorick
51% · 234 games53% · 52 games
Faceless VoidShad
Faceless Void
Tusk
TuskdEsire
48% · 249 games58% · 116 games
Naga SirenKidaro
Naga Siren
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
50% · 95 games47% · 256 games
Dark WillowDaze
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct31:18
AVULUS 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 49:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSmiling Knight
53% · 164 games37% · 28 games
Drow RangerShad
Drow Ranger
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
50% · 94 games59% · 68 games
Keeper of the LightStormstormer
Keeper of the Light
Monkey King
Monkey KingWorick
52% · 165 games46% · 387 games
PangolierMikSa`
Pangolier
Marci
MarcidEsire
44% · 83 games55% · 84 games
Naga SirenKidaro
Naga Siren
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
44% · 91 game48% · 30 games
BaneDaze
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 62%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2