?
arrow_backBack to match
Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Muerta
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Fly · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 16 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Force · 16 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Lowskill · 15 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Fly · 12 games
50%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 27 games
44%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 20 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 19 games
53%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 16 games
69%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 16 games
31%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Batyuk · 16 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
kreker · 14 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
484 picks · 448 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
479 picks · 564 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
450 picks · 232 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
353 picks · 709 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
312 picks · 490 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
311 picks · 724 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 252 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
292 picks · 91 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 35%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total81% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:9
MOUZ 71%Passion UA 29%
The model gave 71% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 25:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzeal
51% · 317 games51% · 146 games
Linaniche
Lina
Monkey King
Monkey KingKami
54% · 264 games44% · 503 games
PangolierBatyuk
Pangolier
Puck
PuckAbed
55% · 203 games56% · 150 games
KunkkaCrystallize
Kunkka
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
45% · 170 games43% · 231 game
Ringmasterkreker
Ringmaster
Jakiro
JakiroEkki
50% · 281 game49% · 205 games
LionQBFY
Lion
Game 2prediction correct24:19
MOUZ 70%Passion UA 30%
The model gave 70% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 39:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonKami
49% · 45 games58% · 116 games
Kunkkaniche
Kunkka
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzeal
54% · 245 games50% · 110 games
TimbersawBatyuk
Timbersaw
Slardar
SlardarAbed
51% · 56 games54% · 44 games
ClinkzCrystallize
Clinkz
Io
IoSeleri
47% · 25 games42% · 129 games
Silencerkreker
Silencer
Jakiro
JakiroEkki
49% · 162 games46% · 134 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 81%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2