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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Quantum Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 37 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 23 games
57%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 22 games
59%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 21 game
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Mira · 21 game
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panto · 19 games
53%

Quantum Team

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 14 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fezor · 12 games
25%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 12 games
42%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 11 games
27%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 10 games
20%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 8 games
13%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ankou · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
483 picks · 449 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
480 picks · 563 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
450 picks · 232 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
353 picks · 709 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
312 picks · 488 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
311 picks · 723 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
306 picks · 252 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
292 picks · 91 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 35%
Hero pool strength62% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:10
Aurora Gaming 80%Quantum Team 20%
The model gave 80% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 32:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomNightfall
45% · 169 games52% · 282 games
GyrocopterLukas
Gyrocopter
Puck
Puckkiyotaka
52% · 142 games51% · 300 games
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Storm Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 139 games52% · 71 game
BrewmasterPalantimos
Brewmaster
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPanto
46% · 113 games51% · 128 games
Shadow Shamanemptiness
Shadow Shaman
Tusk
TuskMira
44% · 254 games64% · 36 games
OracleMary_y
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct30:30
Aurora Gaming 82%Quantum Team 18%
The model gave 82% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:04:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
42% · 172 games47% · 165 games
TerrorbladeLukas
Terrorblade
Kunkka
Kunkkakiyotaka
46% · 121 game56% · 163 games
BristlebackAinkrad
Bristleback
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 237 games59% · 106 games
Dark SeerPalantimos
Dark Seer
Bane
BaneMira
69% · 38 games48% · 41 game
Weaveremptiness
Weaver
Undying
UndyingPanto
48% · 38 games43% · 131 game
JakiroMary_y
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 94%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2