The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTCTeam Curtainloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tearlamentswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Curtain
Kunkkaoften banned
Summer · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Shanks · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Summer · 1 game
Lion
Hara · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Rubick
Hara · 1 game
Tearlaments
Ringmaster
7e · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Srf · 2 games
Centaur Warrunner
Srf · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Srf · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Echo · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Echo · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
483 picks · 449 bans
Tiny
478 picks · 562 bans
Ringmaster
448 picks · 232 bans
Terrorblade
352 picks · 700 bans
Storm Spirit
309 picks · 483 bans
Ancient Apparition
308 picks · 716 bans
Tusk
302 picks · 252 bans
Windranger
291 picks · 91 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% Team Curtain
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total73% Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:37
Team Curtain 37%Tearlaments 63%
The model gave 63% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeSummer
Weaverpoyoyo
LeshracShanks
TimbersawEcho
BristlebackNevermine
Nature's Prophet7e
LionHara
DoomSrf
46% · 95 games
Crystal Maidenzzq
Game 2prediction correct6:26
Team Curtain 39%Tearlaments 61%
The model gave 61% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 21:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaSummer
Muertapoyoyo
Ember SpiritShanks
DoomSrf
MedusaNevermine
TinyEcho
MagnusHara
Dark Willow7e
49% · 129 games
Elder Titanzzq
Model check result
Model favoriteTearlaments · 73%
Series resultTearlaments 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2