Riyadh Masters 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aim Possibleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
eSpoiled
Tusk
Wein · 4 games
Ursaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 4 games
Windranger
Wein · 4 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
asdekor_r · 2 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
asdekor_r · 2 games
Oracleoften banned
asdekor_r · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ssnovv1 · 2 games
Aim Possible
Warlock
Aidar · 3 games
Jakiro
Aidar · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
rubikon155 · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Aidar · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
rubikon155 · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
481 picks · 448 bans
Tiny
476 picks · 560 bans
Ringmaster
446 picks · 229 bans
Terrorblade
351 picks · 690 bans
Storm Spirit
310 picks · 474 bans
Ancient Apparition
305 picks · 706 bans
Tusk
299 picks · 249 bans
Windranger
291 picks · 89 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:23
eSpoiled 51%Aim Possible 49%
The model gave 51% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 37:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Rangerssnovv1
Svenrubikon155
Chenasdekor_r
Ancient ApparitionHtrd
TuskWein
Game 2prediction correct31:20
eSpoiled 52%Aim Possible 48%
The model gave 52% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 36:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterssnovv1
Razorrubikon155
TuskWein
SilencerHtrd
Oracleasdekor_r
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 57%
Series resulteSpoiled 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2