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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kalmychataloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 19 games
63%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
erase · 18 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 17 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 17 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RESPECT · 13 games
31%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 13 games
46%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 12 games
58%

Kalmychata

Sven
Sven
rincyq · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 1 game
100%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Ponlo · 1 game
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mirage · 1 game
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 1 game
100%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
aik · 1 game
100%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
Mirage · 1 game
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Ponlo · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
481 picks · 448 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
474 picks · 557 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
446 picks · 229 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
350 picks · 686 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
310 picks · 471 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
303 picks · 706 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
298 picks · 249 bans
46%
Windranger
Windranger
291 picks · 88 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total86% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:41
HULIGANI 70%Kalmychata 30%
The model gave 70% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 52:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
54% · 135 games51% · 108 games
Svenrincyq
Sven
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
48% · 299 games57% · 109 games
Shadow FiendMirage
Shadow Fiend
Axe
AxeMalik
30% · 9 games47% · 136 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark Willowmrls
49% · 192 games50% · 70 games
Chaos KnightPonlo
Chaos Knight
Oracle
OracleRESPECT
53% · 53 games47% · 265 games
Batrideraik
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct41:30
HULIGANI 71%Kalmychata 29%
The model gave 71% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 53:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckerase
49% · 184 games43% · 76 games
Svenrincyq
Sven
Kunkka
Kunkkav1olent-
45% · 99 games52% · 198 games
Ember SpiritMirage
Ember Spirit
Undying
UndyingMalik
48% · 22 games51% · 108 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Muerta
Muertamrls
49% · 234 games50% · 181 game
Dark WillowPonlo
Dark Willow
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRESPECT
56% · 71 game58% · 47 games
Omniknightaik
Omniknight
Game 3prediction correct45:21
HULIGANI 71%Kalmychata 29%
The model gave 71% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 40:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linaerase
52% · 59 games50% · 63 games
Shadow FiendMirage
Shadow Fiend
Abaddon
Abaddonv1olent-
52% · 23 games52% · 61 game
Slarkrincyq
Slark
Kunkka
KunkkaMalik
50% · 51 game46% · 95 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRESPECT
54% · 33 games36% · 23 games
Death Prophetaik
Death Prophet
Dark Willow
Dark Willowmrls
50% · 110 games57% · 34 games
Chaos KnightPonlo
Chaos Knight
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 86%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3