MOUZ vs Fpm — prediction RM2ОК · Dota 2

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Riyadh Masters 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

MOUZwin 2:0

series probability

88%12%

probability at match start · final 2:0

FFpmloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Muertasignature

Thiolicor · 19 games

63%

Phoenix

Fly · 19 games

58%

Tinyoften banned

Supream^ · 17 games

47%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Supream^ · 16 games

50%

Magnussignature

Force · 16 games

63%

Morphlingsignature

Lowskill · 15 games

67%

Phantom Assassinoften banned

Lowskill · 13 games

38%

Clockwerk

Fly · 12 games

50%

Fpm

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

481 picks · 448 bans

50%

Tiny

474 picks · 557 bans

51%

Ringmaster

446 picks · 227 bans

51%

Terrorblade

350 picks · 686 bans

47%

Storm Spirit

310 picks · 471 bans

53%

Ancient Apparition

303 picks · 706 bans

56%

Tusk

298 picks · 249 bans

46%

Windranger

291 picks · 88 bans

45%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)42% vs 60%

Hero pool strength54% MOUZ

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total88% MOUZ

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct32:4

MOUZ 72%Fpm 28%

The model gave 72% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 17:35.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo