The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledloss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
eSpoiled
Ursaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 4 games
Windranger
Wein · 4 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
asdekor_r · 2 games
Oracleoften banned
asdekor_r · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
asdekor_r · 1 game
Bane
asdekor_r · 1 game
Bounty Hunter
Wein · 1 game
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 1 game
Runa Team
Windranger
queezy · 24 games
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 16 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 13 games
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 12 games
Batridersignature
nicky`cool · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 9 games
Silencer
Hduo · 9 games
Kunkkasignature
Alberkaaa · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
482 picks · 447 bans
Tiny
473 picks · 552 bans
Ringmaster
444 picks · 227 bans
Terrorblade
347 picks · 683 bans
Storm Spirit
311 picks · 465 bans
Ancient Apparition
299 picks · 696 bans
Tusk
296 picks · 247 bans
Windranger
288 picks · 86 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:17
eSpoiled 40%Runa Team 60%
The model gave 60% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 31:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinssnovv1
TerrorbladeShigetsu
Enchantressasdekor_r
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
TuskWein
KunkkaAlberkaaa
49% · 163 games
Dark Willowqueezy
64% · 84 games
Naga SirenHduo
Game 2prediction correct22:44
eSpoiled 41%Runa Team 59%
The model gave 59% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 35:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenssnovv1
Templar AssassinShigetsu
Ancient Apparitionasdekor_r
Pucknicky`cool
TuskWein
Dark SeerAlberkaaa
48% · 138 games
Batriderqueezy
48% · 27 games
DisruptorHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 69%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2