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BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 20 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
yamich · 19 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 16 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BOOM · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 15 games
33%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Seleri · 13 games
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
aik · 13 games
31%
Razor
Razor
Crystallis · 13 games
38%

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 30 games
53%
Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 25 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rain · 16 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
not me · 15 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
not me · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 14 games
50%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Shigetsu · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
493 picks · 332 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
346 picks · 469 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 508 bans
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
330 picks · 502 bans
52%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
312 picks · 645 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
281 picks · 310 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
267 picks · 191 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
262 picks · 279 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total75% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:33
MOUZ 32%Yellow Submarine 68%
The model gave 68% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by MOUZ in 54:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerDarkLord^
48% · 83 games55% · 101 game
ClinkzShigetsu
Clinkz
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNyx
44% · 102 games53% · 97 games
InvokerRain
Invoker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
48% · 182 games57% · 81 game
NecrophosBatyuk
Necrophos
Mirana
Miranaxsvampire
51% · 95 games49% · 77 games
LichXakoda
Lich
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMoOz
52% · 106 games44% · 212 games
ClockwerkWein
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed27:22
MOUZ 35%Yellow Submarine 65%
The model gave 65% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by MOUZ in 52:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
49% · 135 games46% · 156 games
LycanBatyuk
Lycan
Lina
LinaNyx
56% · 68 games47% · 86 games
Drow RangerShigetsu
Drow Ranger
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
55% · 137 games47% · 189 games
Dragon KnightRain
Dragon Knight
Clockwerk
Clockwerkxsvampire
49% · 179 games48% · 86 games
GrimstrokeWein
Grimstroke
Bane
BaneMoOz
48% · 140 games55% · 142 games
MiranaXakoda
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 75%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2