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BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
summer bearloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Kez
Kezoften banned
Niku · 20 games
55%
Axe
Axesignature
pma · 16 games
88%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Daze · 15 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 15 games
60%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 14 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 12 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pma · 10 games
60%

summer bear

Techies
Techies
Delight · 16 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Otaker · 10 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Delight · 9 games
44%
Undying
Undyingsignature
monodrama · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
azimoff · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 5 games
60%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 5 games
60%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
zuyzyan · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
490 picks · 331 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
345 picks · 467 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
333 picks · 502 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 506 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
313 picks · 643 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
282 picks · 311 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
268 picks · 192 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
260 picks · 278 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 52%
Hero pool strength59% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:10
Natus Vincere 79%summer bear 21%
The model gave 79% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 29:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirengotthejuice
48% · 33 games64% · 45 games
Lone DruidOtaker
Lone Druid
Doom
Doompma
55% · 81 game52% · 115 games
LycanfortniteMan
Lycan
Undying
UndyingNiku
46% · 83 games47% · 103 games
Earth SpiritPanda
Earth Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDaze
42% · 68 games51% · 122 games
TechiesDelight
Techies
Bane
BaneRiddys
47% · 120 games
Game 2prediction correct41:11
Natus Vincere 81%summer bear 19%
The model gave 81% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 28:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezgotthejuice
54% · 142 games48% · 108 games
Nature's ProphetOtaker
Nature's Prophet
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
50% · 68 games48% · 183 games
UnderlordfortniteMan
Underlord
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNiku
52% · 396 games48% · 354 games
Storm SpiritPanda
Storm Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightDaze
57% · 127 games46% · 125 games
Winter WyvernDelight
Winter Wyvern
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorRiddys
46% · 37 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 94%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2