ALOHADANCE Team vs VooDooSh Team — prediction SL# · Dota 2

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Streamers League #2 · BO3

result vs prediction

ALOHADANCE Teamloss 0:2

series probability

21%79%

probability at match start · final 0:2

VooDooSh Teamwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ALOHADANCE Team

Centaur Warrunner

AfterLife · 1 game

Clockwerkoften banned

izverq · 1 game

Crystal Maiden

Madnexus · 1 game

Lich

Madnexus · 1 game

Naga Sirenoften banned

ALOHADANCE · 1 game

Nature's Prophetoften banned

ALOHADANCE · 1 game

Puckoften banned

спортик · 1 game

Snapfireoften banned

спортик · 1 game

VooDooSh Team

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

632 picks · 443 bans

53%

Rubick

600 picks · 343 bans

49%

Pangolier

443 picks · 647 bans

51%

Phoenix

429 picks · 496 bans

49%

Tiny

399 picks · 355 bans

50%

Ember Spirit

338 picks · 498 bans

51%

Storm Spirit

338 picks · 382 bans

47%

Puck

318 picks · 975 bans

60%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)40% vs 64%

Hero pool strength57% VooDooSh Team

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total79% VooDooSh Team

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct8:27

ALOHADANCE Team 33%VooDooSh Team 67%

The model gave 67% on VooDooSh Team — the game was taken by VooDooSh Team in 25:28.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo