BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Dark Willow
QBFY · 29 games
Hoodwink
QBFY · 28 games
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 26 games
Underlordoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 25 games
Techies
kreker · 24 games
Rubick
QBFY · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
Tidehunteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 17 games
Level UP
Hoodwink
queezy · 22 games
Windranger
queezy · 21 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 20 games
Techiessignature
Htrd · 19 games
Undyingoften banned
Htrd · 17 games
Void Spirit
Ainkrad · 17 games
Tidehuntersignature
Bb3px · 16 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
495 picks · 334 bans
Bane
346 picks · 470 bans
Ember Spirit
341 picks · 515 bans
Clockwerk
335 picks · 489 bans
Shadow Fiend
311 picks · 646 bans
Tiny
282 picks · 305 bans
Windranger
267 picks · 190 bans
Undying
266 picks · 338 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 68%
Hero pool strength57% Level UP
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total65% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:41
Team Lynx 42%Level UP 58%
The model gave 58% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 1:10:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetTA2000
SvenWoE
Puckmellojul
Void SpiritAinkrad
DoomVladikTheHtiviy
LargoBb3px
Dark WillowQBFY
Rubickqueezy
Tuskkreker
ClockwerkHtrd
Game 2prediction missed27:13
Team Lynx 41%Level UP 59%
The model gave 59% on Level UP — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 28:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendTA2000
LunaWoE
Earth Spiritmellojul
Ember SpiritAinkrad
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
SlardarBb3px
Dark WillowQBFY
Ringmasterqueezy
Clockwerkkreker
MiranaHtrd
Game 3prediction correct11:39
Team Lynx 42%Level UP 58%
The model gave 58% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 38:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosTA2000
MuertaWoE
Earth Spiritmellojul
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Miranakreker
Hoodwinkqueezy
Dark WillowQBFY
ClockwerkHtrd
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 65%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3