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BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Kez
Kezoften banned
Niku · 21 game
57%
Axe
Axesignature
pma · 16 games
88%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Daze · 15 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 15 games
60%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 14 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 12 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pma · 10 games
60%

MOUZ

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 20 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 20 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 16 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BOOM · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 15 games
33%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Seleri · 13 games
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
aik · 13 games
31%
Razor
Razor
Crystallis · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
499 picks · 331 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
347 picks · 471 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 514 bans
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
336 picks · 484 bans
52%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
313 picks · 648 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
282 picks · 307 bans
48%
Undying
Undying
267 picks · 344 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
266 picks · 191 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 29%
Hero pool strength59% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head6 – 6
Model total89% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:7
Natus Vincere 74%MOUZ 26%
The model gave 74% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 37:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorgotthejuice
48% · 99 games53% · 55 games
LifestealerDarkLord^
Lifestealer
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
48% · 80 games47% · 158 games
UnderlordBOOM
Underlord
Huskar
HuskarNiku
51% · 87 games57% · 250 games
Ember SpiritNyx
Ember Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDaze
40% · 197 games49% · 65 games
DazzleMoOz
Dazzle
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernRiddys
53% · 91 game60% · 26 games
Bounty Hunterxsvampire
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct32:21
Natus Vincere 77%MOUZ 23%
The model gave 77% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealergotthejuice
55% · 68 games48% · 277 games
Shadow FiendDarkLord^
Shadow Fiend
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNiku
52% · 114 games42% · 146 games
DawnbreakerBOOM
Dawnbreaker
Axe
Axepma
50% · 243 games47% · 337 games
SlardarNyx
Slardar
Mirana
MiranaRiddys
56% · 115 games53% · 222 games
UndyingMoOz
Undying
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDaze
51% · 501 game47% · 59 games
Bounty Hunterxsvampire
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 89%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2