The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionSXSustancia Xwin 2:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The Last Danceloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sustancia X
Bristlebackoften banned
drakesh1t · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Zeus
Pamplona · 2 games
Bounty Hunter
Pamplona · 1 game
Earthshaker
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Enchantress
Pamplona · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
drakesh1t · 1 game
The Last Dance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
480 picks · 444 bans
Tiny
471 picks · 538 bans
Ringmaster
442 picks · 222 bans
Terrorblade
347 picks · 661 bans
Storm Spirit
307 picks · 452 bans
Ancient Apparition
297 picks · 680 bans
Tusk
293 picks · 233 bans
Windranger
284 picks · 86 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% The Last Dance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% The Last Dance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 2prediction correct38:19
Sustancia X 35%The Last Dance 65%
The model gave 65% on The Last Dance — the game was taken by The Last Dance in 38:55.
Game 3prediction missed43:9
Sustancia X 35%The Last Dance 65%
The model gave 65% on The Last Dance — the game was taken by Sustancia X in 30:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Dance · 65%
Series resultSustancia X 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2