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The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Quantum Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 1 game
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Wein · 1 game
100%
Muerta
Muerta
ssnovv1 · 1 game
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
asdekor_r · 1 game
100%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 1 game
100%
Windranger
Windranger
Wein · 1 game
100%

Quantum Team

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 13 games
38%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 12 games
42%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 11 games
27%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 9 games
22%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 9 games
22%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 8 games
13%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 8 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshrac
kolya_kaBAN68 · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
480 picks · 446 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
470 picks · 540 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
442 picks · 222 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
346 picks · 659 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
305 picks · 452 bans
54%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
297 picks · 678 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 232 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
283 picks · 86 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 30%
Hero pool strength65% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Quantum Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:8
eSpoiled 51%Quantum Team 49%
The model gave 51% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursassnovv1
59% · 183 games49% · 70 games
KunkkaLukas
Kunkka
Tusk
TuskWein
50% · 356 games47% · 147 games
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Ember Spirit
Disruptor
Disruptorasdekor_r
55% · 96 games46% · 155 games
Dark SeerPalantimos
Dark Seer
47% · 150 games
Batrideremptiness
Batrider
39% · 113 games
Shadow DemonMary_y
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed19:18
eSpoiled 52%Quantum Team 48%
The model gave 52% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 38:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursassnovv1
48% · 88 games49% · 38 games
LifestealerLukas
Lifestealer
Windranger
WindrangerWein
48% · 118 games52% · 48 games
EarthshakerAinkrad
Earthshaker
Oracle
Oracleasdekor_r
60% · 21 game44% · 8 games
Death ProphetPalantimos
Death Prophet
62% · 21 game
ChenMary_y
Chen
46% · 112 games
Tuskemptiness
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct38:14
eSpoiled 52%Quantum Team 48%
The model gave 52% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 43:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
Kunkkassnovv1
50% · 117 games45% · 67 games
MorphlingLukas
Morphling
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanWein
57% · 102 games46% · 54 games
BatriderAinkrad
Batrider
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionasdekor_r
59% · 75 games41% · 27 games
BrewmasterPalantimos
Brewmaster
48% · 20 games
ChenMary_y
Chen
45% · 126 games
Tuskemptiness
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteQuantum Team · 53%
Series resulteSpoiled 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3