The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Lynxloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kalmychata
No games played over 6 months.
Team Lynx
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 5 games
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 3 games
Slardar
StoneBank · 3 games
Wraith King
StoneBank · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
DarkLord^ · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
lightless · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
DarkLord^ · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
479 picks · 446 bans
Tiny
470 picks · 540 bans
Ringmaster
442 picks · 222 bans
Terrorblade
346 picks · 657 bans
Storm Spirit
305 picks · 452 bans
Ancient Apparition
297 picks · 678 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 231 bans
Windranger
283 picks · 86 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:26
Kalmychata 50%Team Lynx 50%
The model gave 50% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 48:12.
Game 2prediction correct21:33
Kalmychata 50%Team Lynx 50%
The model gave 50% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 38:11.
Game 3prediction correct43:5
Kalmychata 50%Team Lynx 50%
The model gave 50% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 30:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 50%
Series resultKalmychata 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3