BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TTPB3loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Banesignature
cml · 8 games
Terrorbladesignature
Tino- · 7 games
Doomsignature
Tino- · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 6 games
Hoodwink
Shanks · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 6 games
Rubick
Shanks · 6 games
Techies
Shanks · 6 games
TPB3
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
493 picks · 332 bans
Bane
346 picks · 469 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 508 bans
Clockwerk
330 picks · 502 bans
Shadow Fiend
312 picks · 645 bans
Tiny
281 picks · 310 bans
Windranger
267 picks · 191 bans
Centaur Warrunner
262 picks · 279 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Execration 83%TPB3 17%
The model gave 83% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration.
Game 2prediction correct
Execration 83%TPB3 17%
The model gave 83% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 83%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2