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BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:1
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
6sevenloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
rubikon155 · 17 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Lelis · 15 games
67%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 14 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
YamSun · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 11 games
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Jaunuel · 11 games
55%
Windranger
Windranger
rubikon155 · 11 games
36%

6seven

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
488 picks · 330 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
342 picks · 467 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
332 picks · 500 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
330 picks · 505 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
312 picks · 640 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
280 picks · 311 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
268 picks · 192 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
259 picks · 275 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:11
Team Nemesis 69%6seven 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 32:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetJaCkky
49% · 161 game45% · 301 game
PangolierMac
Pangolier
Necrophos
NecrophosJabz
58% · 78 games52% · 79 games
LinaAkashi
Lina
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritKen
55% · 305 games46% · 139 games
DawnbreakerRaven
Dawnbreaker
Techies
TechiesNARMAN
51% · 121 game53% · 148 games
Winter WyvernPonyo
Winter Wyvern
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJhocam
51% · 202 games41% · 200 games
Dark WillowJing
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed19:42
Team Nemesis 67%6seven 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by 6seven in 41:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetJaCkky
47% · 136 games50% · 101 game
LunaAkashi
Luna
Underlord
UnderlordJabz
51% · 234 games56% · 318 games
Ember SpiritMac
Ember Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritKen
45% · 141 game45% · 152 games
UndyingRaven
Undying
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJhocam
42% · 210 games53% · 147 games
MiranaPonyo
Mirana
Techies
TechiesNARMAN
53% · 113 games59% · 116 games
LionJing
Lion
Game 3prediction correct39:13
Team Nemesis 68%6seven 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 46:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKen
49% · 128 games53% · 124 games
Lone DruidAkashi
Lone Druid
Tiny
TinyJaCkky
44% · 397 games50% · 146 games
Dark SeerRaven
Dark Seer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerJabz
51% · 304 games55% · 585 games
Ember SpiritMac
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJhocam
49% · 616 games51% · 379 games
RubickJing
Rubick
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernNARMAN
47% · 137 games52% · 348 games
BanePonyo
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 83%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3