BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Direborn Esportswin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SSatanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Direborn Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Satan
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
486 picks · 330 bans
Bane
341 picks · 464 bans
Clockwerk
331 picks · 500 bans
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 504 bans
Shadow Fiend
310 picks · 639 bans
Tiny
280 picks · 311 bans
Windranger
267 picks · 191 bans
Centaur Warrunner
258 picks · 274 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Direborn Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Direborn Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:15
Direborn Esports 52%Satan 48%
The model gave 52% on Direborn Esports — the game was taken by Direborn Esports in 26:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezDreamocel
Centaur WarrunnerKNP
TimbersawwoMy
SlardarBeebie
Windrangerdb-
Game 2prediction missed33:29
Direborn Esports 50%Satan 50%
The model gave 50% on Satan — the game was taken by Direborn Esports in 39:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetDreamocel
LycanKNP
AxewoMy
Ember SpiritBeebie
Hoodwinkdb-
Model check result
Model favoriteDireborn Esports · 54%
Series resultDireborn Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2