BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionICIce Cream Menloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ice Cream Men
Dark Willow
dalul · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 1 game
Juggernaut
TraVins · 1 game
Largooften banned
iceiceice · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
Varizh · 1 game
Execration
Banesignature
cml · 8 games
Terrorbladesignature
Tino- · 7 games
Doomsignature
Tino- · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 6 games
Hoodwink
Shanks · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 6 games
Rubick
Shanks · 6 games
Techies
Shanks · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
495 picks · 332 bans
Bane
345 picks · 470 bans
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 513 bans
Clockwerk
333 picks · 489 bans
Shadow Fiend
311 picks · 644 bans
Tiny
280 picks · 304 bans
Windranger
267 picks · 188 bans
Centaur Warrunner
264 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Ice Cream Men
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:51
Ice Cream Men 41%Execration 59%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 1:08:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetTraVins
TinyPalos
Underlordiceiceice
Dark SeerTino-
PuckMoon
Void SpiritBob
Miranadalul
Spirit BreakerShanks
ClockwerkVarizh
Undyingcml
Game 2prediction missed
Ice Cream Men 32%Execration 68%
The model gave 68% on Execration — the game was taken by Ice Cream Men.
Game 3prediction correct46:51
Ice Cream Men 41%Execration 59%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 1:08:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetTraVins
TinyPalos
Underlordiceiceice
Dark SeerTino-
PuckMoon
Void SpiritBob
Miranadalul
Spirit BreakerShanks
ClockwerkVarizh
Undyingcml
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 68%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3