The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Greyloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Grey
No games played over 6 months.
Team Nemesis
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 1 game
Centaur Warrunner
Raven · 1 game
Dark Willow
Jing · 1 game
Dazzleoften banned
Raven · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Raven · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Akashi · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Mac · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Mac · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
479 picks · 446 bans
Tiny
468 picks · 534 bans
Ringmaster
441 picks · 221 bans
Terrorblade
343 picks · 643 bans
Storm Spirit
305 picks · 449 bans
Ancient Apparition
295 picks · 666 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 222 bans
Windranger
280 picks · 84 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:21
Grey 35%Team Nemesis 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 28:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorMangO
MorphlingAkashi
BristlebackYoungGodLevi
KunkkaMac
Ember SpiritWonder'boy
MarsRaven
MuertaPlayHard
Shadow ShamanJing
RingmasterTrazaM
Game 2prediction correct13:42
Grey 34%Team Nemesis 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 27:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerYoungGodLevi
WeaverAkashi
Drow RangerMangO
BristlebackRaven
Queen of PainWonder'boy
PangolierMac
Shadow ShamanPlayHard
Dark WillowJing
Ancient ApparitionTrazaM
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 79%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2