The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Carstensz Esportsloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Greywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Carstensz Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Grey
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
479 picks · 447 bans
Tiny
469 picks · 535 bans
Ringmaster
441 picks · 221 bans
Terrorblade
344 picks · 642 bans
Storm Spirit
306 picks · 447 bans
Ancient Apparition
295 picks · 661 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 221 bans
Windranger
280 picks · 84 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Carstensz Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Carstensz Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Carstensz Esports 52%Grey 48%
The model gave 52% on Carstensz Esports — the game was taken by Carstensz Esports.
Game 2prediction missed
Carstensz Esports 52%Grey 48%
The model gave 52% on Carstensz Esports — the game was taken by Grey.
Game 3prediction missed
Carstensz Esports 52%Grey 48%
The model gave 52% on Carstensz Esports — the game was taken by Grey.
Model check result
Model favoriteCarstensz Esports · 52%
Series resultGrey 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3