The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTBthe bugloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4A4 Anchors and Ilmeriawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
the bug
Axeoften banned
monkeys-forever · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Newsham · 3 games
Rubick
Newsham · 3 games
Viperoften banned
iAnnihilate · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
Centaur Warrunner
iAnnihilate · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
empyrean5 · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 2 games
4 Anchors and Ilmeria
Kezoften banned
dnm · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
dnm · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
dnm · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dnm · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
634 picks · 444 bans
Rubick
600 picks · 342 bans
Pangolier
448 picks · 649 bans
Phoenix
436 picks · 507 bans
Tiny
396 picks · 352 bans
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 496 bans
Storm Spirit
337 picks · 385 bans
Puck
315 picks · 979 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% the bug
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% the bug
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:36
the bug 51%4 Anchors and Ilmeria 49%
The model gave 51% on the bug — the game was taken by 4 Anchors and Ilmeria in 25:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinBoris
Kezdnm
Axemonkeys-forever
HuskariAnnihilate
LionNewsham
Lichempyrean5
Game 2prediction missed28:30
the bug 52%4 Anchors and Ilmeria 48%
The model gave 52% on the bug — the game was taken by 4 Anchors and Ilmeria in 46:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendBoris
Muertadnm
Tidehuntermonkeys-forever
Void SpiritiAnnihilate
LionNewsham
Silencerempyrean5
Model check result
Model favoritethe bug · 52%
Series result4 Anchors and Ilmeria 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2