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The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 24 games
58%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 24 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 21 game
71%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Niku · 20 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
pma · 19 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Daze · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Niku · 18 games
61%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 17 games
47%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 30 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallis · 26 games
58%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
BOOM · 23 games
48%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
41%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 19 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MidOne · 18 games
39%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 18 games
72%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
636 picks · 444 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
600 picks · 341 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
450 picks · 652 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
441 picks · 510 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
394 picks · 349 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
341 picks · 497 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
340 picks · 385 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
316 picks · 982 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head5 – 6
Model total65% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:31
Natus Vincere 58%MOUZ 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 55:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangergotthejuice
46% · 151 game42% · 23 games
TinkerMidOne
Tinker
Invoker
InvokerNiku
49% · 84 games49% · 43 games
NecrophosCrystallis
Necrophos
Batrider
Batriderpma
47% · 182 games57% · 172 games
DoomBOOM
Doom
Techies
TechiesDaze
44% · 92 games55% · 194 games
BanePanto
Bane
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRiddys
54% · 115 games49% · 192 games
Clockwerkyamich
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct23:20
Natus Vincere 59%MOUZ 41%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 42:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassingotthejuice
50% · 182 games49% · 356 games
Shadow FiendCrystallis
Shadow Fiend
Invoker
InvokerNiku
50% · 170 games52% · 79 games
EnigmaBOOM
Enigma
Axe
Axepma
42% · 209 games45% · 445 games
TinyMidOne
Tiny
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRiddys
51% · 220 games56% · 151 game
Keeper of the Lightyamich
Keeper of the Light
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDaze
48% · 431 game57% · 181 game
LargoPanto
Largo
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 65%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2