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The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Tiny
Tinysignature
Supream^ · 14 games
64%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 12 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 11 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 10 games
70%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Thiolicor · 10 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
44%

Winter Bear

Phoenix
Phoenix
Delight · 12 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
20%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Delight · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Delight · 4 games
25%
Clinkz
Clinkz
Delight · 3 games
100%
Lion
Lion
Delight · 3 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Delight · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
476 picks · 447 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
464 picks · 534 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
439 picks · 221 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
342 picks · 636 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
303 picks · 443 bans
54%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
294 picks · 648 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
284 picks · 218 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
279 picks · 84 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:9
Team Secret 67%Winter Bear 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinKiritych
44% · 115 games51% · 213 games
PhoenixJeezy
Phoenix
Lycan
LycanCloud
53% · 64 games50% · 251 game
ClockwerkStoic
Clockwerk
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritre1bl
50% · 167 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
51% · 53 games
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPuppey
51% · 65 games
Game 2prediction correct27:4
Team Secret 69%Winter Bear 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 27:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaKiritych
42% · 80 games59% · 144 games
Dark WillowJeezy
Dark Willow
Death Prophet
Death Prophetre1bl
48% · 17 games46% · 225 games
TuskStoic
Tusk
Pangolier
PangolierCloud
47% · 205 games
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
53% · 42 games
Oracle
OraclePuppey
51% · 25 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 78%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2