The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ban9PivoSamogonloss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4Pirateswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ban9PivoSamogon
No games played over 6 months.
4Pirates
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 25 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 21 game
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 19 games
Clockwerk
ariel · 18 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 15 games
Timbersaw
мистер мораль · 15 games
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
476 picks · 452 bans
Tiny
461 picks · 533 bans
Ringmaster
439 picks · 216 bans
Terrorblade
343 picks · 630 bans
Storm Spirit
302 picks · 437 bans
Ancient Apparition
293 picks · 640 bans
Tusk
286 picks · 212 bans
Windranger
279 picks · 79 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 71%
Hero pool strength53% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:38
Ban9PivoSamogon 31%4Pirates 69%
The model gave 69% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 39:32.
Game 2prediction correct12:22
Ban9PivoSamogon 31%4Pirates 69%
The model gave 69% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 25:43.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 69%
Series result4Pirates 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2