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The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 27 games
44%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 23 games
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 19 games
68%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Batyuk · 17 games
47%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 17 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 16 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 15 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenix
kreker · 15 games
40%

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 9 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
спортик · 8 games
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
спортик · 7 games
14%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 6 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Covisnine · 5 games
80%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
спортик · 5 games
60%
Muerta
Muerta
Shishak · 5 games
20%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
спортик · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
480 picks · 457 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 537 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
433 picks · 213 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
336 picks · 608 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
300 picks · 422 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
290 picks · 627 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
285 picks · 200 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
271 picks · 78 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 38%
Hero pool strength58% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:30
Passion UA 47%Nemiga Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Passion UA in 44:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBatyuk
53% · 84 games44% · 211 games
Terrorbladebashka
Terrorblade
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendniche
43% · 101 game56% · 267 games
Storm Spirityoung G
Storm Spirit
Tiny
TinyCrystallize
52% · 408 games38% · 29 games
AxeCovisnine
Axe
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
52% · 161 game52% · 100 games
Ancient Apparitionmonodrama
Ancient Apparition
Bane
Banekreker
58% · 48 games47% · 195 games
Windrangerxsvampire
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct19:42
Passion UA 46%Nemiga Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinCrystallize
52% · 176 games58% · 467 games
Tinybashka
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierBatyuk
46% · 466 games55% · 332 games
Storm Spirityoung G
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void Spiritniche
37% · 76 games55% · 198 games
Dark SeerCovisnine
Dark Seer
Alchemist
Alchemistkreker
51% · 125 games46% · 83 games
Chaos Knightxsvampire
Chaos Knight
Muerta
MuertaQBFY
44% · 264 games55% · 27 games
Oraclemonodrama
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct44:53
Passion UA 45%Nemiga Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 52:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 55%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3