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The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Niku · 28 games
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Riddys · 26 games
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
pma · 25 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 22 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
57%
Lich
Lichsignature
Riddys · 20 games
65%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
85%

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 20 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 18 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Daxak · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 12 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 11 games
73%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Rein · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
480 picks · 457 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 537 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
433 picks · 213 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
336 picks · 608 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
300 picks · 422 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
290 picks · 627 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
285 picks · 200 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
271 picks · 78 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total64% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:8
Natus Vincere Junior 60%Virtus.pro 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 36:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomgotthejuice
55% · 241 game49% · 102 games
LinaLorenof
Lina
Axe
Axepma
41% · 7 games51% · 46 games
Wraith KingV-Tune
Wraith King
Invoker
InvokerNiku
51% · 123 games47% · 221 game
TerrorbladeDaxak
Terrorblade
Ringmaster
RingmasterRiddys
47% · 206 games47% · 94 games
RubickAntares
Rubick
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanZayac
56% · 126 games47% · 240 games
JakiroRein
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed19:30
Natus Vincere Junior 58%Virtus.pro 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 44:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassingotthejuice
55% · 140 games47% · 177 games
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
Phantom Assassin
Pangolier
Pangolierpma
42% · 301 game49% · 295 games
TerrorbladeDaxak
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckNiku
52% · 194 games53% · 168 games
EarthshakerLorenof
Earthshaker
Snapfire
SnapfireZayac
51% · 109 games51% · 210 games
EnchantressAntares
Enchantress
Ringmaster
RingmasterRiddys
52% · 129 games48% · 23 games
UndyingRein
Undying
Game 3prediction correct25:7
Natus Vincere Junior 57%Virtus.pro 43%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursagotthejuice
49% · 156 games53% · 139 games
DoomV-Tune
Doom
Timbersaw
TimbersawNiku
44% · 154 games53% · 168 games
BeastmasterDaxak
Beastmaster
Underlord
Underlordpma
49% · 128 games54% · 172 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Undying
UndyingRiddys
36% · 42 games50% · 12 games
TechiesAntares
Techies
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanZayac
52% · 102 games54% · 91 game
Crystal MaidenRein
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 64%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3