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The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Phoenix
Phoenix
Delight · 11 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
20%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Delight · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Delight · 4 games
25%
Clinkz
Clinkz
Delight · 3 games
100%
Lion
Lion
Delight · 3 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Delight · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
50%

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Munkushi~ · 16 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 16 games
69%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Munkushi~ · 15 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 13 games
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Munkushi~ · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
480 picks · 457 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 537 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
433 picks · 213 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
336 picks · 608 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
300 picks · 422 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
290 picks · 627 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
285 picks · 200 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
271 picks · 78 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:30
Winter Bear 37%1w Team 63%
The model gave 63% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 34:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerJeezy
48% · 126 games45% · 103 games
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
Templar Assassin
Phoenix
PhoenixStoic
50% · 200 games58% · 119 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
46% · 35 games
AbaddonSSS
Abaddon
54% · 32 games
Chaos Knightkasane
Chaos Knight
51% · 37 games
Shadow Shamanswedenstrong
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct11:36
Winter Bear 36%1w Team 64%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 26:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ringmaster
RingmasterJeezy
58% · 132 games45% · 82 games
KunkkaMunkushi~
Kunkka
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetStoic
51% · 119 games52% · 73 games
Dark SeerSSS
Dark Seer
42% · 72 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
48% · 19 games
Chenkasane
Chen
33% · 5 games
Chaos Knightswedenstrong
Chaos Knight
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 77%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2