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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 27 games
74%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 27 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kuku · 26 games
58%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 25 games
76%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mikoto · 24 games
58%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ws · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
45%

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 36 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 23 games
57%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 22 games
59%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 21 game
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Mira · 21 game
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panto · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
471 picks · 443 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 499 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
432 picks · 200 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
330 picks · 578 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
289 picks · 402 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
287 picks · 604 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
275 picks · 180 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
263 picks · 74 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Talon Esports
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total63% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:28
Talon Esports 48%Aurora Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:05:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom23savage
53% · 239 games43% · 346 games
Tinykiyotaka
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
50% · 252 games43% · 277 games
BeastmasterTORONTOTOKYO
Beastmaster
Enigma
EnigmaWs
51% · 148 games49% · 108 games
LinaNightfall
Lina
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJhocam
60% · 114 games47% · 39 games
UndyingPanto
Undying
Bane
BaneKuku
69% · 27 games50% · 10 games
TechiesMira
Techies
Game 2prediction missed35:8
Talon Esports 42%Aurora Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 32:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMikoto
39% · 75 games47% · 58 games
WeaverNightfall
Weaver
Bristleback
Bristleback23savage
53% · 165 games49% · 122 games
Centaur WarrunnerTORONTOTOKYO
Centaur Warrunner
Axe
AxeWs
43% · 24 games54% · 178 games
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Storm Spirit
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKuku
54% · 127 games56% · 62 games
Naga SirenPanto
Naga Siren
Marci
MarciJhocam
54% · 116 games47% · 87 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 63%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2