?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 32 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 25 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 23 games
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 23 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 19 games
42%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Ace · 18 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 16 games
69%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 16 games
44%

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 34 games
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 23 games
57%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 22 games
59%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 21 game
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Mira · 21 game
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panto · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
473 picks · 447 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 504 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
431 picks · 200 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
329 picks · 579 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
289 picks · 404 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
286 picks · 604 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
277 picks · 179 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
263 picks · 74 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 49%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total54% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:42
Gaimin Gladiators 54%Aurora Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 54:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritQuinn
47% · 70 games49% · 66 games
LinaNightfall
Lina
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAce
57% · 193 games55% · 290 games
Tinykiyotaka
Tiny
Abaddon
AbaddonWatson
43% · 90 games55% · 101 game
BrewmasterTORONTOTOKYO
Brewmaster
Terrorblade
TerrorbladetOfu
45% · 233 games46% · 134 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Disruptor
DisruptorMalady
51% · 64 games49% · 59 games
Naga SirenPanto
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction correct37:20
Gaimin Gladiators 55%Aurora Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerWatson
58% · 21 game44% · 52 games
LinaNightfall
Lina
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritQuinn
54% · 202 games43% · 87 games
TimbersawTORONTOTOKYO
Timbersaw
Kunkka
KunkkaAce
49% · 76 games42% · 230 games
Pangolierkiyotaka
Pangolier
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamantOfu
58% · 78 gameslittle data
TechiesMira
Techies
Undying
UndyingMalady
56% · 19 games62% · 27 games
BanePanto
Bane
Game 3prediction missed19:44
Gaimin Gladiators 52%Aurora Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 55:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaQuinn
41% · 114 games56% · 106 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Muerta
MuertaWatson
40% · 291 game49% · 506 games
Tinykiyotaka
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierAce
45% · 369 games57% · 42 games
OmniknightTORONTOTOKYO
Omniknight
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamantOfu
48% · 116 games59% · 163 games
Ancient ApparitionPanto
Ancient Apparition
Ringmaster
RingmasterMalady
54% · 150 games55% · 223 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 54%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3