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The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
rue · 41 game
59%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 21 game
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Collapse · 20 games
65%
Largo
Largosignature
Collapse · 20 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 20 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 18 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Collapse · 18 games
56%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 35 games
49%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 27 games
78%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 25 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Davai · 24 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 23 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
640 picks · 445 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
601 picks · 339 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
456 picks · 659 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
448 picks · 522 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
393 picks · 348 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 499 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 389 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
319 picks · 988 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 65%
Hero pool strength50% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total70% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:49
Team Spirit 62%Nigma Galaxy 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 1:03:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierCollapse
48% · 396 games47% · 302 games
WindrangerSumaiL
Windranger
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYatoro
52% · 372 games45% · 537 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
52% · 551 game45% · 316 games
AxeDavai
Axe
Enchantress
Enchantressrue
52% · 200 games51% · 349 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Bane
Banenot me
59% · 258 games48% · 273 games
RingmasterOmaR
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct36:18
Team Spirit 60%Nigma Galaxy 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYatoro
47% · 248 games47% · 68 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
52% · 380 games47% · 434 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
52% · 172 games29% · 3 games
SpectreSumaiL
Spectre
Mirana
Mirananot me
46% · 49 games49% · 302 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Bane
Banerue
55% · 170 games54% · 212 games
ClockwerkOmaR
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct39:19
Team Spirit 61%Nigma Galaxy 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYatoro
39% · 138 games53% · 287 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCollapse
44% · 141 game52% · 252 games
Shadow FiendSumaiL
Shadow Fiend
Puck
PuckLarl
49% · 494 games59% · 208 games
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
Centaur Warrunner
Clockwerk
Clockwerknot me
43% · 223 games59% · 149 games
RingmasterOmaR
Ringmaster
Lich
Lichrue
44% · 90 games58% · 190 games
BaneGH
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 70%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3