DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 27 games
Phoenix
GH · 26 games
Tusk
OmaR · 25 games
Earthshaker
SumaiL · 21 game
Magnussignature
No!ob · 21 game
Tinysignature
OmaR · 20 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 18 games
Elder Titansignature
GH · 17 games
PARIVISION
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 37 games
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 30 games
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 29 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 26 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 26 games
Enigmasignature
DM · 22 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
No[o]ne · 22 games
Slarksignature
9Class · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
480 picks · 458 bans
Tiny
441 picks · 526 bans
Ringmaster
429 picks · 200 bans
Terrorblade
326 picks · 579 bans
Storm Spirit
287 picks · 403 bans
Ancient Apparition
284 picks · 601 bans
Tusk
277 picks · 174 bans
Windranger
261 picks · 74 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% PARIVISION
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total92% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:28
Nigma Galaxy 20%PARIVISION 80%
The model gave 80% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 29:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomNo!ob
MedusaSatanic
TimbersawSumaiL
KunkkaNo[o]ne
MarciGhost
BristlebackDM
Batrideryamich
Naga Siren9Class
IoGH
Shadow ShamanDukalis
Game 2prediction correct17:34
Nigma Galaxy 24%PARIVISION 76%
The model gave 76% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingGhost
Shadow FiendSatanic
DawnbreakerNo!ob
DoomDM
Ember SpiritSumaiL
KunkkaNo[o]ne
Slarkyamich
Techies9Class
Elder TitanGH
Naga SirenDukalis
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 92%
Series resultPARIVISION 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2