DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Muertasignature
tOfu · 33 games
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 24 games
Jakiro
Malady · 23 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 23 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 19 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Ace · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 16 games
Team Liquid
Tinysignature
miCKe · 44 games
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 34 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 26 games
Muertasignature
Boxi · 26 games
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
Silencer
iNSaNiA · 22 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
480 picks · 461 bans
Tiny
441 picks · 530 bans
Ringmaster
428 picks · 200 bans
Terrorblade
326 picks · 577 bans
Storm Spirit
286 picks · 404 bans
Ancient Apparition
284 picks · 601 bans
Tusk
274 picks · 175 bans
Windranger
261 picks · 74 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 8
Model total55% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:36
Gaimin Gladiators 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 27:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingWatson
Drow RangerV-Tune
MedusaAce
BatriderNisha
Queen of PainQuinn
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
TusktOfu
MarciBoxi
Shadow ShamanMalady
UndyingiNSaNiA
Game 2prediction correct33:16
Gaimin Gladiators 54%Team Liquid 46%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 29:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzWatson
GyrocopterV-Tune
Storm SpiritQuinn
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
KunkkaAce
Void SpiritNisha
Keeper of the LighttOfu
TuskBoxi
OracleMalady
BaneiNSaNiA
Game 3prediction correct36:9
Gaimin Gladiators 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaQuinn
MedusaV-Tune
DoomWatson
TinyNisha
PangolierAce
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
TusktOfu
RingmasteriNSaNiA
DisruptorMalady
Dark WillowBoxi
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 55%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3