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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 32 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 22 games
55%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 20 games
70%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Mira · 20 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 18 games
72%

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
BoBoKa · 23 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 23 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenix
天命 · 21 game
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
zeal · 21 game
48%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 19 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 19 games
63%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Emo · 19 games
42%
Batrider
Batrider
BoBoKa · 17 games
35%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
481 picks · 466 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 532 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
426 picks · 200 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
325 picks · 577 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
285 picks · 401 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
282 picks · 599 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
274 picks · 174 bans
46%
Windranger
Windranger
260 picks · 74 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:15
Aurora Gaming 63%Yakult Brothers 37%
The model gave 63% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 39:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNightfall
45% · 274 games50% · 78 games
LinaEmo
Lina
Dark Seer
Dark SeerTORONTOTOKYO
56% · 187 games47% · 160 games
Weaverflyfly
Weaver
Void Spirit
Void Spiritkiyotaka
52% · 67 games49% · 320 games
BeastmasterBEYOND
Beastmaster
Tusk
TuskMira
44% · 252 games50% · 149 games
MagnusBoBoKa
Magnus
Oracle
OraclePanto
58% · 21 game57% · 94 games
Shadow ShamanOli
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct18:23
Aurora Gaming 63%Yakult Brothers 37%
The model gave 63% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 45:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNightfall
51% · 433 games46% · 300 games
Terrorbladeflyfly
Terrorblade
Puck
Puckkiyotaka
54% · 217 games46% · 304 games
Storm SpiritEmo
Storm Spirit
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
54% · 206 games50% · 165 games
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
MiranaMira
53% · 106 games54% · 209 games
Shadow DemonBoBoKa
Shadow Demon
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPanto
54% · 154 games40% · 138 games
SilencerOli
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 73%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2