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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 44 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 34 games
71%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 26 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Silencer
Silencer
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
iNSaNiA · 20 games
50%

Nigma Galaxy

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 27 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 26 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 24 games
58%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
SumaiL · 21 game
52%
Magnus
Magnussignature
No!ob · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
OmaR · 20 games
65%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 18 games
56%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
483 picks · 473 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
443 picks · 538 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
424 picks · 199 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
326 picks · 574 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
284 picks · 399 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
282 picks · 598 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
278 picks · 174 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
260 picks · 74 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total68% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:4
Team Liquid 59%Nigma Galaxy 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaV-Tune
46% · 99 games47% · 194 games
MedusaGhost
Medusa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
46% · 242 games58% · 197 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Kunkka
KunkkaNisha
38% · 105 games59% · 179 games
Centaur WarrunnerNo!ob
Centaur Warrunner
Ringmaster
RingmasteriNSaNiA
44% · 182 games53% · 104 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
51% · 174 games59% · 128 games
Shadow Shamanyamich
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed4:38
Team Liquid 61%Nigma Galaxy 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaV-Tune
49% · 87 games58% · 33 games
BloodseekerGhost
Bloodseeker
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSabeRLight-
44% · 175 games57% · 166 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
48% · 192 games43% · 95 games
KunkkaNo!ob
Kunkka
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoxi
59% · 85 games40% · 198 games
Batrideryamich
Batrider
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
66% · 24 games53% · 71 game
SilencerGH
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct37:8
Team Liquid 60%Nigma Galaxy 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinV-Tune
47% · 122 games52% · 23 games
BloodseekerGhost
Bloodseeker
Slardar
SlardarNisha
46% · 67 games56% · 180 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaSabeRLight-
60% · 93 games37% · 18 games
Death ProphetNo!ob
Death Prophet
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
51% · 171 game45% · 43 games
SilencerGH
Silencer
Undying
UndyingiNSaNiA
48% · 19 games48% · 208 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 68%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3