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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 31 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 22 games
55%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 20 games
70%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Mira · 20 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 18 games
72%

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 37 games
81%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 29 games
83%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 29 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 26 games
62%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 26 games
73%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 22 games
77%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
No[o]ne · 22 games
59%
Slark
Slarksignature
9Class · 22 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
486 picks · 476 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 544 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
424 picks · 199 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
324 picks · 576 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
285 picks · 400 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
282 picks · 598 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
279 picks · 175 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
260 picks · 74 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total78% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:16
Aurora Gaming 33%PARIVISION 67%
The model gave 67% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 42:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
55% · 164 games47% · 241 game
TerrorbladeSatanic
Terrorblade
Tidehunter
TidehunterTORONTOTOKYO
57% · 156 games56% · 310 games
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
Pangolierkiyotaka
41% · 397 games55% · 262 games
Dark SeerDM
Dark Seer
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPanto
50% · 145 games42% · 219 games
Dark Willow9Class
Dark Willow
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
48% · 200 games55% · 30 games
OmniknightDukalis
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct21:27
Aurora Gaming 30%PARIVISION 70%
The model gave 70% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 41:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
48% · 80 games50% · 139 games
WeaverSatanic
Weaver
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTORONTOTOKYO
44% · 251 game49% · 202 games
PuckNo[o]ne
Puck
Earthshaker
Earthshakerkiyotaka
49% · 124 games55% · 257 games
BristlebackDM
Bristleback
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPanto
50% · 91 game54% · 106 games
Shadow Shaman9Class
Shadow Shaman
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
48% · 180 games56% · 22 games
OracleDukalis
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct12:22
Aurora Gaming 31%PARIVISION 69%
The model gave 69% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 31:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNightfall
50% · 314 games46% · 252 games
TerrorbladeSatanic
Terrorblade
Tidehunter
TidehunterTORONTOTOKYO
56% · 112 games43% · 120 games
KunkkaNo[o]ne
Kunkka
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyerkiyotaka
51% · 15 games55% · 186 games
Dark SeerDM
Dark Seer
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPanto
50% · 117 games44% · 83 games
Chaos Knight9Class
Chaos Knight
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
56% · 96 games48% · 13 games
OracleDukalis
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 78%
Series resultPARIVISION 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3