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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
BoBoKa · 23 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 23 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenix
天命 · 21 game
52%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 19 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
zeal · 19 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Emo · 19 games
42%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 18 games
67%
Batrider
Batrider
BoBoKa · 17 games
35%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 27 games
74%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 26 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kuku · 26 games
58%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 23 games
78%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mikoto · 23 games
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ws · 19 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
486 picks · 477 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 543 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
423 picks · 199 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
323 picks · 576 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
285 picks · 399 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
282 picks · 595 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
279 picks · 174 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
260 picks · 74 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 34%
Hero pool strength54% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total53% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:2
Yakult Brothers 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 27:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursaflyfly
51% · 158 games55% · 265 games
Gyrocopter23savage
Gyrocopter
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBEYOND
56% · 206 games45% · 317 games
Dragon KnightMikoto
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEmo
51% · 302 games52% · 194 games
MagnusWs
Magnus
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeBoBoKa
45% · 296 games55% · 122 games
Shadow ShamanKuku
Shadow Shaman
Silencer
SilencerOli
44% · 94 games46% · 158 games
Dark WillowJhocam
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct16:36
Yakult Brothers 46%Talon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeflyfly
44% · 229 games53% · 180 games
Templar Assassin23savage
Templar Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBEYOND
54% · 151 game52% · 154 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Slardar
SlardarEmo
53% · 70 games44% · 338 games
PangolierMikoto
Pangolier
Lion
LionBoBoKa
49% · 168 games51% · 118 games
Shadow ShamanKuku
Shadow Shaman
Jakiro
JakiroOli
48% · 249 games56% · 77 games
SlarkJhocam
Slark
Game 3prediction correct14:32
Yakult Brothers 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 42:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckEmo
54% · 211 games44% · 133 games
Ursa23savage
Ursa
Wraith King
Wraith Kingflyfly
51% · 47 games44% · 90 games
KunkkaMikoto
Kunkka
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBEYOND
50% · 218 games58% · 129 games
DoomWs
Doom
Riki
RikiBoBoKa
55% · 29 games44% · 195 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
Ringmaster
RingmasterOli
52% · 143 games47% · 101 game
Crystal MaidenKuku
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 53%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3